If ever there were a group living in a "bubble," it's the western owners & directors of Thai travel companies. I have a new Covid-driven communications rule; I no longer watch a Webinar if 'experts' are only men. Time to add a subsection: "Avoid caustic statements from white men in Asia."
Hi David. This is Allen & Kat--whom you know from when we had Thaidaho Vista on Koh Mak. We are currently back on the Idaho side of Thaidaho. Thank you for the article: it is great, thoughtful and well-balanced!
The pandemic's impact on Thai tourism can't be overstated, and many Thais have lost jobs, businesses and homes. Many more are in deep debt and have burned through savings. But IMO, this perspective of the 'return to normal' seems both pervasive and unjustified. I wonder if the Thais in tourism who are hurting (or TAT!), take time to think about how many of the pre-pandemic tourists who were visiting and supporting them, are also struggling? How many of them have also lost jobs, businesses and homes, family and friends, and burned through their savings? Once Thailand decides how and when to reopen, will the world will be lined up at the gates waiting to enter? Even if they wanted to be?
The 1% can travel and enter now, and as always, they can largely do whatever they want. But of the 30M to 40M tourists who were visiting Thailand before the pandemic, only about 1% of them were the 1%. Most of the other 99%, the vast majority of travelers, are struggling in this pandemic, too. How soon will this larger more important demographic be financially able to resume their international travels? Reopening is just half of the equation, and I don't see TAT or anyone else talking it. Do you in BKK or traveling around?
Allen & Kat, great to hear from you and thanks for reading. Hope all is well in Idaho.
You're absolutely right, it's going to be far from 'normal' even after quarantine restrictions are lifted, and that could easily be the subject of a whole other article. No doubt, it will be years before tourist arrivals start to approach pre-pandemic numbers, if ever. And there's a whole other discussion around sustainability and whether Thailand should even want 40 million tourists a year in the future.
As for whether people here in the tourism industry think about how it won't be like 'turning on a switch', I'd say yes, most people have a vague awareness of that. I say "vague" because, for one, there's still so much uncertainty about when any tourists can enter without quarantine and that tends to take precedence in people's thoughts. People are so stressed that the idea of things not being like they were for many years is an extra layer of doom and I think a lot of people can't handle that yet -- myself included some days. We have to keep hope alive and that means focusing on the first hurdle to recovery, which is dropping quarantine. I think beyond that, 'we'll cross other bridges when we get to them' is the common sentiment for your average business owner or worker. To give one example, my partner's tour company has around a dozen clients -- many of them repeat clients -- who are ready to book tours and make Thailand travel plans as soon as quarantine is dropped. So she's keeping them in mind and hoping for the best while also knowing in a more distant way that it's going to be a long and tedious climb back.
Thinking of people I know in the US, it seems the pandemic has created an odd situation where financial positions hinge largely on professions. I know restaurant, retail and tourism business owners/workers who have lost everything, but I also know an insurance executive, an electrician, a teacher, a nurse, a financial consultant, a renewable energy pro, a pharmaceuticals marketer and a retiree who have all saved a lot more money than expected over the past year. Of course, whether or not people in that latter group will opt to spend disposable income on a trip to Thailand that will surely come with new annoyances like mandatory government tracking, covid testing and a longer entry process, remains to be seen. At first, I think it will mainly be the tourists who not only have the money but also a particular fondness of or vested interest in Thailand based on past experiences.
In the long run, I'm of the mind that things will remain rough, although slowly getting better, for a solid 2-3 years as countries sort out vaccinations and work on economic recovery while researching more deeply into the virus. For example, if mutations start taking shape faster than updated vaccines can be developed in response, then we could be in big trouble for many years to come. But that's a worst-case scenario. I'm hopeful that the virus will dissipate to manageable levels next year and we'll start getting a couple of years of gradual economic recovery under our belts. At that point, say 2024, I could see a boom of international travel as people celebrate 'normalcy' again. Let's hope so.
David, good points, all! We see the same thing currently in the US: the impacts of the pandemic are spread very unequally. Some are doing very well; others not. As we look forward, I don’t worry as much about mutations as I do about the next new and completely novel pandemic that is no doubt around the corner. We’re doing nothing about climate change, so the question of another new pandemic is not if, but rather when. For all of this, I wish there could be more focus in Thailand on possible new directions rather than awaiting the return to normal.
Good luck, stay safe, and thank you for your blog and insights! Like so many, we’re not sure when we can make it back to the Thai side of Thaidaho. Kat’s mom and family are still on KM, and we kept our little slum apartment in BKK. So time will tell!
David, what has your experience been this past year as a western expat? My experience is that Thais prefer not to sit next to me on the bus or train already, but it never felt like discrimination or xenophobia before now. I expect to get vaccinated in May or June 2021 and was considering starting a long-term visit to Thailand as early as October or November. I'll be happy to quarantine when I arrive too, even if I've already got the jab. But I wonder if based on the information in your article I should delay until early 2022 when a higher percentage of Thais have been vaccinated (or at least had the opportunity) and there is potentially less anxiety about foreign visitors. Even so, it sounds like I might do better at first concentrating in places more frequented by foreign tourists (and where they have been most missed); Hua Hin rather than Ban Krut, for example. Thanks for the thoughtful write up. Cheers.
Hey Mark! Can't say I've encountered any real xenophobia, though Chin has been with me when traveling outside Bangkok so I haven't gotten a sense of what it's like not being with a Thai. I've heard from a few foreign solo travelers and couples who said some Thais were very weary of them in places like Ratchaburi and Songkhla, but that was early on in the pandemic. As for when to come to Thailand, it's really hard to say what things will be like months from now... My article speculates that fear of foreigners is possible if they come in without quarantine and some spread the virus, but who knows if that will actually happen, or if they'll be allowed in without quarantine before most Thais are vaccinated in the first place. There's still so much uncertainty. But, knowing you to be notably cooperative and culturally sensitive, I wouldn't advise you not to come in Nov. if that's when you want to come and you're okay with quarantine. I reckon that businesses in both touristy and non-touristy areas will be happy to accommodate you. Waiting until Feb. would probably give you a better chance of not needing to quarantine. We look forward to seeing you whenever you make it out here. Cheers.
If ever there were a group living in a "bubble," it's the western owners & directors of Thai travel companies. I have a new Covid-driven communications rule; I no longer watch a Webinar if 'experts' are only men. Time to add a subsection: "Avoid caustic statements from white men in Asia."
I agree Stephen. Though not all of them by any means, some of the expat tourism operators can be painfully tone deaf about the countries they work in.
getting a jab does nothing getting a test does nothing..its all bs. but fear is more dangerous
Hi David. This is Allen & Kat--whom you know from when we had Thaidaho Vista on Koh Mak. We are currently back on the Idaho side of Thaidaho. Thank you for the article: it is great, thoughtful and well-balanced!
The pandemic's impact on Thai tourism can't be overstated, and many Thais have lost jobs, businesses and homes. Many more are in deep debt and have burned through savings. But IMO, this perspective of the 'return to normal' seems both pervasive and unjustified. I wonder if the Thais in tourism who are hurting (or TAT!), take time to think about how many of the pre-pandemic tourists who were visiting and supporting them, are also struggling? How many of them have also lost jobs, businesses and homes, family and friends, and burned through their savings? Once Thailand decides how and when to reopen, will the world will be lined up at the gates waiting to enter? Even if they wanted to be?
The 1% can travel and enter now, and as always, they can largely do whatever they want. But of the 30M to 40M tourists who were visiting Thailand before the pandemic, only about 1% of them were the 1%. Most of the other 99%, the vast majority of travelers, are struggling in this pandemic, too. How soon will this larger more important demographic be financially able to resume their international travels? Reopening is just half of the equation, and I don't see TAT or anyone else talking it. Do you in BKK or traveling around?
Allen & Kat, great to hear from you and thanks for reading. Hope all is well in Idaho.
You're absolutely right, it's going to be far from 'normal' even after quarantine restrictions are lifted, and that could easily be the subject of a whole other article. No doubt, it will be years before tourist arrivals start to approach pre-pandemic numbers, if ever. And there's a whole other discussion around sustainability and whether Thailand should even want 40 million tourists a year in the future.
As for whether people here in the tourism industry think about how it won't be like 'turning on a switch', I'd say yes, most people have a vague awareness of that. I say "vague" because, for one, there's still so much uncertainty about when any tourists can enter without quarantine and that tends to take precedence in people's thoughts. People are so stressed that the idea of things not being like they were for many years is an extra layer of doom and I think a lot of people can't handle that yet -- myself included some days. We have to keep hope alive and that means focusing on the first hurdle to recovery, which is dropping quarantine. I think beyond that, 'we'll cross other bridges when we get to them' is the common sentiment for your average business owner or worker. To give one example, my partner's tour company has around a dozen clients -- many of them repeat clients -- who are ready to book tours and make Thailand travel plans as soon as quarantine is dropped. So she's keeping them in mind and hoping for the best while also knowing in a more distant way that it's going to be a long and tedious climb back.
Thinking of people I know in the US, it seems the pandemic has created an odd situation where financial positions hinge largely on professions. I know restaurant, retail and tourism business owners/workers who have lost everything, but I also know an insurance executive, an electrician, a teacher, a nurse, a financial consultant, a renewable energy pro, a pharmaceuticals marketer and a retiree who have all saved a lot more money than expected over the past year. Of course, whether or not people in that latter group will opt to spend disposable income on a trip to Thailand that will surely come with new annoyances like mandatory government tracking, covid testing and a longer entry process, remains to be seen. At first, I think it will mainly be the tourists who not only have the money but also a particular fondness of or vested interest in Thailand based on past experiences.
In the long run, I'm of the mind that things will remain rough, although slowly getting better, for a solid 2-3 years as countries sort out vaccinations and work on economic recovery while researching more deeply into the virus. For example, if mutations start taking shape faster than updated vaccines can be developed in response, then we could be in big trouble for many years to come. But that's a worst-case scenario. I'm hopeful that the virus will dissipate to manageable levels next year and we'll start getting a couple of years of gradual economic recovery under our belts. At that point, say 2024, I could see a boom of international travel as people celebrate 'normalcy' again. Let's hope so.
David, good points, all! We see the same thing currently in the US: the impacts of the pandemic are spread very unequally. Some are doing very well; others not. As we look forward, I don’t worry as much about mutations as I do about the next new and completely novel pandemic that is no doubt around the corner. We’re doing nothing about climate change, so the question of another new pandemic is not if, but rather when. For all of this, I wish there could be more focus in Thailand on possible new directions rather than awaiting the return to normal.
Good luck, stay safe, and thank you for your blog and insights! Like so many, we’re not sure when we can make it back to the Thai side of Thaidaho. Kat’s mom and family are still on KM, and we kept our little slum apartment in BKK. So time will tell!
David, what has your experience been this past year as a western expat? My experience is that Thais prefer not to sit next to me on the bus or train already, but it never felt like discrimination or xenophobia before now. I expect to get vaccinated in May or June 2021 and was considering starting a long-term visit to Thailand as early as October or November. I'll be happy to quarantine when I arrive too, even if I've already got the jab. But I wonder if based on the information in your article I should delay until early 2022 when a higher percentage of Thais have been vaccinated (or at least had the opportunity) and there is potentially less anxiety about foreign visitors. Even so, it sounds like I might do better at first concentrating in places more frequented by foreign tourists (and where they have been most missed); Hua Hin rather than Ban Krut, for example. Thanks for the thoughtful write up. Cheers.
Hey Mark! Can't say I've encountered any real xenophobia, though Chin has been with me when traveling outside Bangkok so I haven't gotten a sense of what it's like not being with a Thai. I've heard from a few foreign solo travelers and couples who said some Thais were very weary of them in places like Ratchaburi and Songkhla, but that was early on in the pandemic. As for when to come to Thailand, it's really hard to say what things will be like months from now... My article speculates that fear of foreigners is possible if they come in without quarantine and some spread the virus, but who knows if that will actually happen, or if they'll be allowed in without quarantine before most Thais are vaccinated in the first place. There's still so much uncertainty. But, knowing you to be notably cooperative and culturally sensitive, I wouldn't advise you not to come in Nov. if that's when you want to come and you're okay with quarantine. I reckon that businesses in both touristy and non-touristy areas will be happy to accommodate you. Waiting until Feb. would probably give you a better chance of not needing to quarantine. We look forward to seeing you whenever you make it out here. Cheers.