Phuket Sandbox: Tourism savior or risky rush towards more problems?
Questions remain as Phuket rushes to be the first Thai province to welcome tourists from abroad, without quarantine, from July 1st. (Island Watch #8)
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) recently unveiled a new slogan ahead of the launch of Phuket Sandbox, a program that would allow vaccinated inbound travelers to skip quarantine if they enter Thailand by air in Phuket:
“Amazing Thailand: Even more amazing than before.”
But given the Covid-19 situation and related closures and restrictions, Thailand may not look too amazing to potential tourists in the near future.
Why would anyone visit Thailand soon?
In countries like the US, UK and Germany, Covid-19 restrictions are being lifted as waves of hope follow a tragic year. Thailand looks hopeless in comparison, making it hard to see why potential tourists would leave the northern summer to jump through a bunch of hoops for a risky Thailand trip during rainy season.
Phuket province has fairly strict containment measures in effect for the time being. 14 more Covid-19 cases turned up on the island over the last few days, adding to the more than 660 cases recorded in Phuket province over the last two months. Only around 10% of Phuket’s hotels are open. Bars are closed, not only on Phuket but all over the country. Unless you’re keen to help the tourism industry and relax on empty beaches, this July is not looking like a great time to visit Thailand.
Inbound travelers do face a small yet concerning risk of being isolated in hospital if they test positive for Covid-19 on the fifth day of their stay. False positives are possible, as is catching the virus during the flight or after arrival in Thailand. Vaccinated travelers recently tested positive upon arrival in Australia, to name one instance of people catching the virus despite being inoculated.
Mandatory tracking through the Thailand Plus smartphone app will be a dissuading factor for some potential travelers. Being required to mask up even when lounging on Thai beaches is another turnoff. Some travel enthusiasts may be inclined to wait until regional border closures are lifted, enabling the swings through various Southeast Asian countries that were so popular before the pandemic.
Given Thailand’s Covid-19 situation and related risks and rules, most people who take advantage of the program over the next few months will probably be expats or others with vested interests in the country. The Sandbox will almost certainly fall short of saving Thailand’s battered tourism industry, at least in the short term.
70% vaccination rate on Phuket?
In a March article, I pointed out that one or more of four things would need to happen before Thailand can drop quarantine for inbound travelers. They’re worth repeating here, alongside current updates in parentheses:
Vaccinate a majority of the Thai population. (This is a long way off.)
Globally accepted studies determine that vaccinated people pose a minimal risk of transmitting the virus. (More on this in the next section.)
Accept some risk of viral spread from vaccinated travelers. (This is what Thai authorities are doing with the Sandbox program.)
Allow travelers from only certain countries; and/or allow travelers to only access certain destinations during their first week or two in country. (Both are happening, but rules are looser than I anticipated.)
A longstanding prerequisite for launching the Phuket Sandbox is vaccinating at least 70% of the local population by July 1st. How is that going?
Roughly 21% of Phuket’s residents have been fully inoculated and nearly 60% have received their first vaccine dose as of yesterday, according to a statement from provincial officials. Given the time required between doses, the current numbers make it virtually impossible to inoculate 70% of the local population — with both doses — by July 1st. The local rollout has picked up steam, however, and Phuket now seems poised to reach its vaccination goal by mid July.
Vaccinating 70% of Phuket’s tourism workers by July 1st appears more achievable, though exactly who qualifies as a tourism worker is unclear. In addition to the hotel receptionists and tour guides, for example, inbound travelers will also come into contact with shopkeepers, street food vendors and drivers. Also, unvaccinated people from elsewhere in Thailand might go to Phuket in search of jobs.
After many weeks of being denied vaccines even when their Thai colleagues were inoculated, foreign residents of Phuket with work permits are finally gaining access. However, it appears that foreign retirees are being left behind despite falling into high-risk age groups. Some non-vaccinated residents are fearful.
The ongoing spread of Covid-19 is another challenge.
“Covid-19 cases in Phuket must reach zero before it reopens to foreign tourists on July 1st,” said Tourism Minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn in early May, as reported by Bangkok Post. But with the TAT promoting the Sandbox while encouraging travel agencies to sell flights and hotel bookings, I find it hard to believe that authorities will delay the program if Phuket is still finding cases later this month.
More recently, the Tourism Minister offered his take on the vaccination stakes for Thailand. “At least 70% of the population in each (Sandbox) destination has to be vaccinated to prevent tourists from being exposed to the virus. Spread to tourists would destroy our reputation.” What about spread to the locals?
A measured risk?
Around the world, patterns are emerging on the degree to which vaccinated people can catch and transmit Covid-19 and its many variants. An analysis from Bloomberg hints that vaccines developed with mRNA technology, such as those from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech, “are better at stopping people from becoming contagious” than the vaccines which were developed using other formulas.
So far, Thailand has procured the Sinovac, AstraZeneca, and Sinopharm vaccines. None of these are the more protective mRNA types.
Thailand’s vaccines are thought to protect reasonably well against most variants, but they’re not very effective against the B.1351 variant that was first found in South Africa and recently surfaced among illegal immigrants in the deep south of Thailand. If it were to spread further into the country, be it through people crossing from Malaysia or inbound travelers arriving as part of the Sandbox program, Phuket or other areas could end up in a predicament like the Seychelles is in now.
Despite this small island nation boasting one of the world’s highest inoculation rates, “there has been a recent surge in cases, with 37% of new active cases and 20% of hospital cases being fully vaccinated,” according to an analysis from CNA. The vaccine resources of the Seychelles — primarily AstraZeneca and Sinopharm — are similar to those of Thailand. Most of the doses administered in Phuket have been Sinovac, which has the lowest efficacy of all WHO-approved vaccines.
A concerning contrast between these countries is that only around 2.6% of Thailand’s population had been fully vaccinated as of yesterday, compared with an inoculation rate of 68.9% in the Seychelles. By openingto quarantine-free inbound travel before more of the population has been vaccinated, Thai authorities are putting citizens at risk. How well measured is the risk? That is up for debate.
This comment from Phil of Ajarn.com speaks to the resentment that some of the people who live in other parts of Thailand are feeling about Phuket these days.
How will foreign tourists be treated?
Given the dire state of the Thai economy, and especially the tourism industry, many Phuket residents think that dropping quarantine for inbound vaccinated travelers is well worth the risk. They see the Sandbox program as a first step on a road towards a recovery that will probably take several years to unfold.
Thailand’s ongoing wave of Covid-19 is forcing Thai people to accept some risks posed by the virus, unlike in mid 2020 when a pair of Egyptian visitors provoked a panic by spending a few hours out and about in Rayong before testing positive. Some Thais might now look at vaccinated travelers from abroad in a similar light as domestic travelers from Bangkok who are allowed to forego quarantine when entering Phuket and several other provinces if they’re vaccinated or tested.
This more risk-tolerant outlook could dissipate fast if even one inbound traveler spreads the virus in Thailand, especially if they introduce one of the more virulent variants. A scenario like this would doubly affect foreign residents who are not often differentiated from foreign tourists in the eyes of many Thai people. As the pandemic in Thailand has already shown, xenophobia is a concern.
Even if things go smoothly with the Sandbox program, some Thais might still resent the vaccinated foreign tourists they see gallivanting around areas where unvaccinated locals currently face disruptive Covid-19 restrictions.
Some Thais already resent Phuket for being prioritized for vaccination and receiving special treatment from the government. In a recent meeting, TAT governor Yuthasak Supasorn didn’t hide his views on how Phuket should be presented to foreign tourists: “If we cannot give a clear message that the Phuket Sandbox is separate from the rest of Thailand, they will not have the confidence to visit the country.”
Where will reopening plans go from here?
The answer to this question depends largely on how things play out on Phuket and how Thailand’s Covid-19 situation and vaccination program develop over the third quarter of this year. In a hypothetical worst-case scenario, inbound travelers would import variants that tear through Phuket and Thailand at large, prompting a suspension of the program and delaying a broader reopening.
If things go well on Phuket and vaccination rates rise as Covid-19 cases fall elsewhere in Thailand, the plan is to expand the Sandbox program to Ko Samui, Khao Lak, Krabi, Pattaya, Hua Hin, Cha-am, Buriram, Chiang Mai and possibly Bangkok from October 1st. A successful result of the Sandbox experiment would be the full reopening of Thailand to vaccinated travelers to kick off 2022.
Whatever happens, I’m buckling in for a “roller coaster ride” as Thailand strives to move beyond the pandemic and reach its ultimate reopening goals. Rest assured, I’ll keep you updated as developments unfold. And if you reside on Phuket or plan to travel there next month, best of luck in the sandpit. 🌴
David, in terms of me not being able to make the numbers work, this morning I read (again) that the government has contracted with AZ for 61M doses. But AZ is a two-dose vaccine, so 61M doses can vaccinate only +/- 30M people. A 70% vaccination rate would require +/- 49M people, or +/- 98M doses. Do you have a feel for where/when the remaining doses will come?
Excellent! You hit on all my questions and worries. It's a cluster; one cannot make the supposed vaccination supply, logistics and administration work even if you try. Thank you!!