Special report: Border closures, new cannabis rules, political uncertainty and a plot to stir panic leave Thailand rattled
A timeline of major events from the last 30 days or so.
Thank you for reading Thai Island Quest. With so much happening over the last month, I’ve decided to write up a timeline with brief summaries of key events and publish it here as a special report, rather than as part of the usual monthly Island Wrap. Your regular Island Island Wrap will follow soon after.
Thailand’s political situation has become remarkably unstable and fluid over a short span of time. Most of the following developments are related and it’s important to keep in mind that a string pulled in one aspect could spark changes in another. Hold on to your hat — things might get bumpier in the coming months.
May 28th: A skirmish between Thai and Cambodian troops along a disputed jungle border south of Ubon Ratchathani tragically leaves one soldier from the Cambodian side dead. Almost immediately, a war of words erupts online and in the political sphere as nationalist fervor bubbles up in both countries. This is a resurgence of long-simmering tensions over borderlands, often in the vicinity of ancient Khmer temple ruins, but it’s the first serious flare up in nearly 15 years.
May 31st: Thailand escalates the conflict by announcing plans to close all 16 land border crossings with Cambodia.
June 7th: A limited closure of land border crossings begins. Though implementation is gradual at first, international buses cease operating by June 9th.
June 18th: Apparently insulted by “grandstanding rhetoric” from Thai PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Cambodia’s authoritarian strongman leader, Hun Sen, leaks a recording of what Paetongtarn expected to be a private phone call on June 15th. During the call, Paetongtarn addresses herself as “niece” and Hun Sen as “uncle” while deriding the Thai Army commander overseeing border operations in the region as “trying to look cool” and being from “the opposite side.” Referring to her silence on other spats with Cambodia earlier in her tenure as PM, Paetongtarn adds, “This is because I both love and respect Mr. Hun Sen and therefore if there is anything you want, please tell me directly.” The leaked clip sparks considerable anger among Thai people as Paetongtarn’s hawkish public stance contradicts her meek and conciliatory tone in private. A decades-long friendship between Hun Sen and Paetongtarn’s father, former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, crumbles overnight.
June 18th: Citing the leaked call and anticipating a Cabinet reshuffle viewed as unfavorable to what had been the second largest party in the governing coalition, the Bhumjaithai Party withdraws its 69 MPs from the government and joins the opposition. This leaves the Pheu Thai-led government hanging by a thread — even if all other coalition parties have so far stuck with it as they scoop up several ministerial posts left vacant by Bhumjaithai’s departure.
June 21st: All land border crossings are closed in both directions to nearly everyone, including tourists and business travelers who, as it stands at time of writing, must fly via the airports in cities like Siem Reap and Bangkok to travel between the two countries. The closure of the Had Lek - Koh Kong crossing on the Gulf coast hampers travelers whose itineraries included southern Cambodian islands like Koh Rong along with eastern Thai islands like Ko Chang and Ko Kut. Halting all traffic at the more widely used Aranyaprathet - Poi Pet crossing is a huge blow to the regional economies on both sides of the border. On June 29th, some stranded people and cargo trucks are allowed to cross “under strict limitations.”
June 23rd: PM Paetongtarn announces a crackdown on scam call centers in Cambodia. While there’s no question that Cambodia’s scam centers are a big problem for Thailand and its national security, the timing left many asking if the Thai government had been holding off on taking a tougher stance on the issue out of deference to Hun Sen and his son, the current Cambodian PM.
June 23rd: With the pro-cannabis Bhumjaithai Party out of the government, the Health Minister decrees that purchasing cannabis buds will require a prescription from a doctor or licensed traditional medicine practitioner, and that buyers are limited to no more than 30 grams per month. The new rules, explained in an enthusiastic notice from the TAT, attempt to permit cannabis only for medical use, but are throwing into chaos an estimated $1 billion industry after three years of Thailand having the most liberal cannabis laws in the world. Much confusion remains over enforcement, and the decree could quickly be rescinded if the government collapses. There was talk of a 30 to 60 day delay on implementing new rules, although the only outlets I’ve seen reporting that are Pattaya Mail and ASEAN Now. Some weed shops are already offering customers help with getting a prescription.
June 24th to 27th: Police units find 11 improvised explosive devices that Bangkok Post describes as “noise-making devices” at Andaman coastal areas that are popular with tourists, including Patong Beach and Laem Promthep in Phuket and Ao Nang and Noppharat Thara beaches in Krabi, as well as near the Governor’s mansion in Phang Nga. “The devices produced only sound without shrapnel, as perpetrators aimed merely to create panic in the tourist cities,” reports Khaosod, but the thwarted attacks were alarming enough for Australia to warn of an “ongoing risk of terrorism.” Two suspects from Pattani were arrested and are reportedly cooperating with authorities regarding this rare case of Thailand’s deep southern conflict spilling beyond that far southeastern corner of the country, as allegedly occurred in August 2016 when relatively low-impact explosions hit several Southern Thai cities. Though unrelated to the Cambodian border and associated political turmoil, the plot has added an extra layer of anxiety to an already prickly period for Thailand.
June 28th: A street protest demanding the resignation of PM Paetongtarn draws at least 10,000 people to Bangkok’s Victory Monument despite the rain. At least one protest leader warns that more rallies may be on the way.
June 28th: A NIDA poll hints at plummeting public support for the ruling Pheu Thai Party following the leaked call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen. Pheu Thai’s support falls to just 11.5%, down from 28% in January, as Paetongtarn’s own support as favored PM candidate loses a whopping 20% over that span.
July 1st: “Thailand’s Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over the leak of a recording of a phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen, setting off further rumbles of political turbulence,” reports The Diplomat in an article joined by others from Reuters and CNN, among many more. Transport Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit is named acting PM as the Court takes 30 to 60 days to decide if it will remove Paetongtarn from the PM job — as it did with PM Srettha Thavisin last year over an ethics charge. Separately, Paetongtarn faces potential disqualification over complaints filed by opponents with the Election Commission and the National Anti Corruption Commission.
July 3rd: A no confidence vote against the government that had been planned by the Bhumjaithai Party for today was canceled following her suspension, but with Paetongtarn now in steaming-hot water and Pheu Thai patriarch Thaksin facing his own legal troubles as the Thai economy continues to stutter and the Cambodian border dispute drags on, some are speculating about “the last days of the Shinawatra dynasty.” Others are parsing through possible political outcomes as — like in 2006 and ‘10 and ‘14 — Thailand faces much uncertainty again.
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Oh my gosh...Thank you for posting this. In the U.S., you wouldn't even know there was anything going on politically anywhere but here!
What a frightening time for the Thai people.