Many challenges remain as Thailand tentatively tries to live with Covid-19

Island Wrap #52: Pandemic edition for August 30 to September 11, 2021

Welcome to the Island Wrap at Thai Island Times, your bi-weekly window to what’s happening throughout Thailand’s islands and coastal areas. Rather than squeezing all news into one wrap, I’ll be separating pandemic, tourism reopening and wildlife / travel / other news for the foreseeable future. The latter will be covered in another wrap tomorrow, and an in-depth update on inbound tourism reopening is coming soon.

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In the last Island Wrap I wrote that September was shaping up as a transitional month in Thailand thanks to a decline in confirmed Covid-19 cases along with the easing of containment measures and the reopening of more travel destinations. In truth, the country is now at the start of a long and tedious struggle to keep the virus at bay and recover from the ongoing destruction of the pandemic.

Thailand has endured a virulent onslaught over the past five and a half months, especially since the Delta variant became the dominant strain around early July. As of yesterday, 97.8% of Thailand’s total 1.36 million confirmed Covid-19 cases, and 99.2% of its 14,173 confirmed deaths, came after April 1st. The overall excess mortality rate suggests that the true death toll may be significantly higher.

Economic desperation, mental-health problems and untreated physical ailments constitute an unknown number of deaths over the past several months. Millions of workers and businesses continue to face severe income loss while receiving little to no financial assistance from the government. Thailand’s suicide rate in 2020 was higher than at any point in 19 years, and the 2021 rate is likely to be worse.

The tourism and nightlife industries have been particularly hard hit by a steep, sustained downturn that started way back when the world’s first confirmed case of Covid-19 outside of China surfaced in Bangkok on January 13th, 2020. The full extent of the economic damage is nearly impossible to fathom.

Along with a recent decline in confirmed cases, a momentous increase in vaccinations is providing a glimmer of hope. But as Thailand begins to evolve its collective mindset towards a future in which Covid-19 is expected to be an endemic disease, patience is now more vital than ever. We still have a long way to go.

This way to the off ramp.

The Covid-19 situation

So far this month Thailand has averaged 14,845 confirmed domestic cases per day, a marked decrease compared to when daily cases were routinely above 20,000 in August. The improvement seems to have stalled, however, with confirmed cases remaining in the 13,000 to 17,000 range every day since September 1st.

Some observers doubt that infections have truly declined, citing a testing rate that fell from around 70,000 per day in July to only 40,000 per day more recently. Chulalongkorn University scientist Dr. Leshan Wannigama recently tweeted that evidence of Covid-19 found in Bangkok wastewater samples does appear to show a decrease in infections, though his team’s research has yet to be published in full.

The numbers of Covid-19 patients on ventilators and in serious condition, which stood at 875 and 4,168 respectively as of yesterday, have also fallen steadily. While this is great news, Bangkok Post columnist Chartchai Parasuk suggests that the government may have consciously moved to reduce the number of patients in publicly provided care because it failed to adequately fund its national health insurance programs, resulting in the depletion of an emergency fund by the end of July.

2,584 confirmed Covid-19 deaths have sadly been reported this month, a slight decline compared to past weeks that is now appearing to follow the falling case curve. There were 3,530 more recoveries than new cases reported yesterday.

Considered alongside an average of 669,185 daily vaccinations from August 28th through Friday, the declining cases and increasing recoveries suggest that Thailand may finally be on the right track. Nearly 37% of the population had received one dose and more than 16% had been fully vaccinated as of yesterday. (See the Vaccine Tracker for more details, including inoculation levels by province.)

Still, the health crisis is far from over.

In Bangkok, the infection rate detected through testing has been hovering at around 20% — a worryingly high number. Factories, markets and villages are still closing or being forced into lockdown. Hospital beds are still in short supply in places, even if some field hospitals are emptying out. Coastal provinces like Chonburi, Rayong, Songkhla, Narathiwat and Nakhon Si Thammarat continue to struggle with high case loads and full vaccination rates that range from only 11% to 22%.

Residents of many places that have been forced to lock down, such as the Urak Lawoi community on Ko Lipe, have been largely at the mercy of donations as little help comes from the very authorities that imposed the lockdowns. (Find info here if you want to help Ko Lipe.) Some businesses, such as the beloved Hippy Bar on Ko Phayam, are relying on online fundraising to stay afloat.

Phuket officials reported an average of 221 cases per day since September 1st, one of the highest infection counts in the South despite a local vaccination rate above 70%. Ever protective of the Phuket Sandbox program, local officials plan to administer more than 400,000 booster vaccines soon. Phuket’s hospitals were at 80% capacity last week. Four patients died and 34 were in serious condition there on Friday.

Officials reported 90 cases on Ko Samui to go with 17 on Ko Tao and three on Ko Phangan since September 1st. 11 cases were also found on Ko Chang this month, while nearby Ko Kood reported its first two cases in several months. In Krabi, at least three cases surfaced on Ko Lanta, and the rural island of Ko Klang went into lockdown after the discovery of 21 cases. 43 cases also appeared on Ko Phi Phi over the past four days, prompting officials to limit access to the islands.

As with Phuket, local vaccination rates are relatively high on Ko Samui, Ko Tao and Ko Phi Phi, all of which are currently involved in inbound tourism reopening programs. I can’t help but wonder how Thailand can achieve the government’s stated goal of living with Covid-19 when heavily inoculated communities are still being placed in lockdown in response to small outbreaks.

After so many months of the media, the government and the public fixating on case numbers as the primary measure of overall pandemic severity, shifting Thailand’s collective mindset towards adapting to Covid-19 as an endemic disease will be a slow and tedious process. There remains a reactive tendency to panic like it’s mid 2020 when finding even asymptomatic cases in vaccinated people.

In other pandemic news:

Thailand’s elderly lag behind in Covid vaccination drive, data show — Patpicha Tanakasempipat for Reuters:
“Thailand was the only one of 30 countries for which Reuters reviewed data that had a lower percentage of seniors vaccinated than those in younger age groups.”

Help urged as virus robs children of parental care — Bangkok Post:
“180 children, or 48%, lost their fathers, while 151 or 40% lost their mothers. Three lost both parents and had someone to take care of them while 35 lost both parents and had no one to care for them, according to the [Dept. of Children and Youth].”

Jobless tour guides ‘committing suicide, forced to steal’ — Assawin Pakkawan for Bangkok Post:
“Since the Covid-19 pandemic hit the country, nine guides based in Hat Yai had committed suicide since returning to their home provinces … One of them jumped to his death from a building in Phuket.”

Hoteliers in Pattaya call for assistance, say foreign buyers sniffing around — Chaiyot Pupattanapong for Bangkok Post:
“If remedial action was not taken, the crisis in the tourism sector would persist. Hotel operators would be left with no choice but to sell their businesses to foreign investors.”

Volunteers help poorest survive Thailand’s worst Covid surge — David Rising for AP:
“For Tun Nye, 31, the bag of rice, canned fish and other staples dropped off by Bangkok Community Help volunteers meant not having to go hungry that week.”

Residents of Phuket who already received two shots of Sinovac can now register for a third booster jab. Providing third shots to the general public is controversial given that more than 70% of Phuket residents already got two doses and vaccination rates are much lower in all other provinces.

Fragile travel situation

A 9:00 PM to 4:00 AM curfew remains in place in 29 ‘dark-red’ provinces until October 1st at the earliest, but restaurants and several other types of businesses and venues have reopened in hard-hit provinces like Bangkok and Chonburi. In a controversial move, officials announced that only vaccinated people will be allowed to dine in at restaurants in Bangkok and Hua Hin, among others, starting next month.

Gatherings are still heavily restricted nationwide. Ko Samui police raided a birthday party on Friday that was attended by 48 people, including 27 foreigners.

Plans have been hatched to inoculate students as young as 10 years old with the Sinopharm vaccine, and as young as 12 with Pfizer, in an effort to reopen public schools. This is increasingly urgent given that thousands of students have stopped cooperating with virtual learning, which activists say neglects children whose families lack the resources to provide reliable computers and internet.

Domestic travel remains discouraged in Thailand, though travelers have been trickling back to Ko Larn, Hua Hin, Ko Samet and various national parks. The TAT is looking to launch a campaign to push domestic travel in October, but it might be shelved if the Covid-19 situation does not continue to improve.

Phuket officials canceled a controversial ban on domestic travelers and, after initially decreeing that travelers need to be tested before entry and again on their fifth day in the island province, the second test requirement was nixed. Domestic travelers can now conduct a rapid antigen test on their own to gain entry to Phuket at the Thatchai road checkpoint, which has reportedly been bustling with traffic.

A negative Covid-19 test and one shot of the AstraZeneca vaccine or two shots of most other vaccines are still required to enter Phuket, Krabi, Phang Nga and many other provinces — at least in theory. The same goes for Ko Samui, Ko Phangan and Ko Tao, among other islands. Following an outbreak on Ko Lipe last month, officials only recently began to allow a limited number of ferries from Pakbara to resume service, but only for local residents until further notice.

Access to Ko Phi Phi is limited to approved travel, such as delivery boats and Phuket Sandbox travelers, until September 18th. All attractions in Hat Hoppharat Thara - Mu Ko Phi Phi National Park are closed until the 24th.

If you’re trying to surmise what exactly is required for traveling within Thailand, I suggest giving this Thai PBS World primer and a recent update from the TAT a look. A list of vaccination requirements for all destinations in Thailand that Nok Air flies to might also come in handy. If you can read Thai and have the patience for a hunt, the Ministry of Interior website has all coronavirus-related orders — including travel entry rules — issued by the governors of all 77 provinces.

Welcome to a ‘future’ in which vaccination and perhaps Covid-19 testing may end up being permanently required to enter some Thai destinations. Especially for smaller islands like Ko Lipe, Ko Tao and Ko Phi Phi, I suspect that proof of vaccination when purchasing ferry tickets is one requirement that will stick. 🌴

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